TL;DR
The New START treaty limiting U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear weapons has expired, leaving no binding caps as Russia signals regret and President Donald Trump pushes for a broader deal that includes China.
Why This Matters
The expiration of New START ends more than 50 years of formal nuclear arms control between Washington and Moscow. Since the 1970s, a series of treaties helped cap and reduce the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, cut the risk of miscalculation, and provided on-site inspections that offered rare transparency during and after the Cold War.
Without New START, there are no legally binding limits on deployed U.S. and Russian strategic warheads or the missiles and bombers that carry them. That raises fears of a new arms race at a time when relations are already strained over the war in Ukraine and growing U.S.-China rivalry. It also complicates efforts to manage rising nuclear capabilities in Asia, where China is rapidly expanding its own arsenal.
For U.S. readers, this is not an abstract diplomatic dispute. Nuclear posture decisions drive defense spending, shape alliance politics in Europe and Asia, and influence crisis stability with other major powers. What replaces New START, or fails to replace it, will help define global security for the coming decade.
Key Facts & Quotes
The New START treaty, signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, capped each side at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers. Originally set to expire in 2021, it was extended once for five years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had offered to keep observing the treaty’s limits for an extra year if Washington did the same, but the Trump administration did not accept. Instead, Trump wrote on his Truth Social account that, rather than extend what he called a “badly negotiated deal” that is “being grossly violated,” the United States should work on “a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.”
End of an era! 🌍☢️
The New START Treaty has expired, leaving the US & Russia without nuclear limits for the 1st time in 50 years. Trump calls for a new pact including China. #NuclearArmsRace #NewSTART #Geopolitics pic.twitter.com/JrTZpn7MlZ
— Readdio (@Readdio) February 6, 2026
The Kremlin says it regrets the expiration. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow views the end of New START “negatively” and pledged a “responsible, thorough approach to stability when it comes to nuclear weapons,” while stressing Russia will act according to its national interests. Putin, in talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, said Russia “will act in a balanced and responsible manner based on thorough analysis of the security situation,” according to Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov.
China has rejected joining a three-way pact. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said China’s nuclear forces “are not at all on the same scale as those of the U.S. and Russia, and thus China will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at the current stage.” Beijing and Moscow both say they regret New START’s expiry and urge Washington to resume nuclear dialogue with Russia.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that “in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile.” Arms control advocates warned of a destabilizing three-way buildup; Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association said a breakdown in diplomacy “could lead to a years-long, dangerous three-way nuclear arms buildup.”
Despite the treaty’s end, U.S. and Russian officials agreed in Abu Dhabi to reestablish high-level military-to-military contacts that had been suspended since 2021, according to the U.S. European Command.
What It Means for You
The loss of New START increases uncertainty about how many nuclear weapons major powers may deploy in the coming years. That could influence U.S. defense budgets, the size and basing of American forces in Europe and Asia, and debates over missile defenses and civil preparedness at home.
For individuals, the immediate impact may not be visible, but the long-term stakes are significant. A renewed arms race could divert resources from domestic priorities and raise the risks in any future crisis involving Russia or China. Key issues to watch include whether Washington and Moscow agree, even informally, to keep observing New START limits, whether China remains outside any talks, and if U.S. allies such as France and the United Kingdom are drawn into broader negotiations.
Discussion question: Do you think the United States should prioritize renewing a bilateral treaty with Russia first, or hold out for a broader agreement that includes China and other nuclear powers?
Sources
- Associated Press report by Vladimir Isachenkov, published by PBS News on February 5, 2026.
- Statements by Russian officials including President Vladimir Putin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and adviser Yuri Ushakov, as reported in official briefings and cited in the above report.
- Remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as quoted in public posts and official comments.
- Chinese Foreign Ministry briefing by spokesperson Lin Jian, as cited in international reporting on February 5, 2026.
- Analysis and commentary from Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association, quoted in the Associated Press report.
